Blackjack Casino Odds
Blackjack Odds One of the main reasons why blackjack is such a popular card game is that it offers very beneficial odds in comparison to the rest of the casino classics. Its low house edge is another aspect which appeals to many players. Free Bet Blackjack is a blackjack variant by game inventor Geoff Hall. The twist to this one is the player doesn't have to risk his own money when splitting or doubling (most of the time). It is like playing with a generous boyfriend at the table who makes all the supplemental bets for you and lets you keep the winnings. Blackjack - What Are the Odds? Plus articles and information on Casino-Gambling Boxing news, reviews, articles, interviews and forum. Start a free email account, homepage or even your own journal.
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Introduction
Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds. To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must.
Free Bet Blackjack is a blackjack variant by game inventor Geoff Hall. The twist to this one is the player doesn't have to risk his own money when splitting or doubling (most of the time). It is like playing with a generous boyfriend at the table who makes all the supplemental bets for you and lets you keep the winnings. What is the catch? Like in Geoff's other game, Blackjack Switch, if the dealer gets a 22, all bets left standing push.
The game opened for business on June 20, 2012 at the Golden Nugget. I went down for the game's debut and found the table full of people enjoying the game. The strategy is simpler and offers more doubles and splits than conventional blackjack. Gamblers who find the basic strategy of conventional blackjack too complicated to memorize may take relief in the simplicity of Free Bet Blackjack.
Rules
The rules have changed since the game launched at the Golden Nugget. It is my understand that the rules below are now the norm. The game is based on standard blackjack, with the following rules:- Six decks
- Dealer hits soft 17's
- Blackjacks pay 3 to 2
- Double after split allowed
- Double on two cards only
- Re-split pairs up to four hands, including aces
- No surrender
The game introduces two major rule changes:
- 'Free Doubles' on hard totals of two-card total of 9, 10, or 11. Regular doubles are still allowed on all other two-card hands. With a 'free double,' the player's original wager is matched with a 'free bet' button and the player receives one additional card. At the end of the hand:
- If the dealer wins, the player loses his original wager only.
- If the hand results in a push, the player gets back his original wager only.
- Otherwise, if the player wins, the player gets back his original wager plus winnings equal to double that wager.
- 'Free Splits' on all pairs except 10's. With a 'free split,' the player's two cards are divided into two one-card hands. The player's original wager is placed with the first hand and a 'free bet' button is placed with the second hand. The player plays out each hand one at a time and is entitled to a 'free double' or 'free split' on both hands. For winning hands, each 'free bet' button is replaced with real chips equaling the original wager. On hands resulting in a player loss or push, the dealer takes back the 'free bet' button.
- Dealer pushes on 22. If the player has 21 or less and the dealer busts with 22, then the player's wager is a push.
Basic Strategy
Strategy depends on whether you are playing a real money bet or a free bet. There is a difference because a push is just as bad as a loss on a Free Bet, thus causing a more aggressive strategy. The following three tables show the strategy for a real money hand, free bet hand, and pairs respectively.
If you remember just one thing about the strategy, accept every free double and free split opportunity.
House Edge
The house edge under the standard rules above is 1.04%.
Rule Variants
Following are the effects of some possible rule variants. The effects are the change in the player's expected return. The figures below with a (SH) were taken with permission from Discount Gambling. The ones with a (Wiz) were calculated by me. It is interesting that the greater the number of decks, the better the odds for the player, which is the opposite of conventional blackjack. I assume it is because there is more free-splitting with more decks, due to a lesser effect of non-replacement.
- Free doubles with three or more cards (DG): +0.66%.
- Dealer stands on soft 17 (DG): +0.31%.
- Late surrender allowed (DG): +0.21%.
- One deck: -0.14% (Wiz).
- Two decks: -0.06% (Wiz).
- Eight decks: +0.01% (Wiz,DG).
- No re-splitting aces (DG): -0.08%.
- No free re-splits on a pair of fours (DG): -0.27%.
- No re-splitting 2-9: -0.32% (DG).
- No double or free-double after a split (DG): -0.70%.
- Blackjack pays 6 to 5: -1.36% (Wiz).
Pot of Gold
I have heard reports that some casinos offer a side bet called Pot of Gold, which is based on the number of Free Bet tokens the player accumulates per initial hand. The Washington Gambling Commission lists two Pot of Gold pay tables. Following is my analysis of both of them. These tables were based on a random simulation. The lower right cells show a house edge of 5.77% on pay table 1 and 4.64% on pay table 2.
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 1
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1000 | 0.000002 | 0.002026 |
| 6 | 300 | 0.000027 | 0.008140 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 60 | 0.000847 | 0.050799 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 10 | 0.013488 | 0.134884 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.057686 |
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 2
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 100 | 0.000002 | 0.000203 |
| 6 | 100 | 0.000027 | 0.002713 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.000847 | 0.042333 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 12 | 0.013488 | 0.161861 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.046426 |
The player can lower the house edge on the Pot of Gold by splitting fives instead of doubling, at the detriment of the primary wager. If the player splits fives the house edge on the Pot of Gold will be 2.75% under Pay Table 1 and 1.48% under Pay Table 2. Splitting fives, instead of doubling, will increase the house edge on the base wager by 0.15%.
Acknowledgement
I would like to thank Geoff Hall, the inventor, for his cooperation with the rules and sharing the math report. This report is based on a combination of work between Stephen How and me. We are in close agreement on the house edge. The basic strategy and some of the effects of rule variations are the work of Stephen How.
Internal Links
- Original rule card. Please note that doubling on three or more cards is no longer allowed but free splits of fours is. Overall, the old rules were better, of course. Table game rules seldom get better for the player.
Outside Links
- Free Bet Blackjack page at Discount Gambling.
- Free Bet Blackjack Facebook page.
Online Casino Blackjack Odds
Written by:Michael Shackleford| Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust % |
|---|---|
| 11 | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 21 | 100% |
How To Play Blackjack To Win
- Be Aware Of House Edge - Both land-based and online casinos will always have at least a small edge over you, the player. This is simply the nature of the beast and is one of the reasons why you’ll never see a casino going out of business. For example, you’ll have to play first. Therefore, if you go bust, you’ll automatically lose the hand even if the dealer goes bust two seconds after you. Make sure you understand all aspects of the house edge before you start playing.
- Different Variations = Different Rules - Don’t just assume that because you’re playing blackjack all of the rules will be the same as the standard version. If you go in with that mindset it will be a recipe for disaster. There are far too many versions to list here. However, the games you’re most likely to encounter are Blackjack Surrender, Atlantic City Blackjack, Double Exposure Blackjack, and a few others.
- Blackjack Strategies - As with all games, there are several betting systems on the market claiming to give you a better chance of winning. First of all, forget counting cards. Not only is it against house rules but you basically have to be a math genius in order to work out the percentages. However, there are certain legal strategies which can increase your chances - such as basic blackjack strategy. You can also use cheat sheets since the dealer can’t see you.
Blackjack Tips for Beginners
- Increase Your Stakes Slowly - Firstly, start playing with small stakes. If you go in all guns blazing on your very first hand and try to win half a million there’s a good chance you’re going to leave the table with your tail between your legs. Respect the game and try to get an understanding of how it works. Blackjack is a fun game to play, our advice would be to play through a minimum of 50 hands on the lowest stake before you start increasing the size of your bet.
- Understand the Percentages - Obviously, the main aim of this game is to get to 21. Therefore, it’s extremely important that you fully understand the odds. For example, if you’re sitting on 18 and you choose to hit there’s a good chance that you’re going to go bust. However, if you’re sitting on 11 or less you literally can’t lose by taking one more hit. Do your research and don’t play blindly. It’ll pay off in the long term.
- Focus On Yourself - It’s easy to make rash decisions based on what other players are doing. For example, if somebody at the table raises the stakes significantly it might send a shiver down your spine. However, it doesn’t really matter what the players around you are doing. You’re playing against the dealer and nobody else. Always keep this in mind before you make any decisions. This is one of our golden rules in regards to blackjack.
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Blackjack Odds FAQs
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
Blackjack Casino Odds
There are many factors that will affected your chances of winning a hand of blackjack. Your hand, the dealer's hand - and the rules can all impact the outcome. See our full strategy guide above for more details.
Should I use a blackjack odds chart?
It is certainly a helpful tool to have - and we have a free one you can use above. However, we recommend a blackjack strategy chart that shows you the optimal strategic play for that hand. This will lead you to more fruitful results and reduce the house edge to its minimum.
Best Casino Blackjack Odds In Vegas
Is a blackjack odds calculator useful?
In some situations - yes. But once again, a basic strategy chart is more useful as it gives you the best plays possible for what the dealer has.
What is the blackjack games with the best odds?
Blackjack Vs Casino Odds
To find the game with the best odds, we want to look at blackjack games with the best house edge. Single deck games where the dealer stands on soft 17 boast a house edge of just 0.18%. See above for more info on house edge.